A long or short call for every half-hour, published before it happens
Gridcall tells a flexible asset in the GB power market which way to lean in the next half-hour. Each call is written to a public ledger about eight minutes before the half-hour starts and scored against the prices Elexon publishes afterwards. The model is trained only on open data, and everything on this page can be recomputed by anyone.
Latest call
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Live record
Calls made by the deployed model, in real time. Nothing here is backfilled.
Out-of-sample backtest
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Cumulative profit per 1 MWh position
Covers wear, efficiency losses or fees. The model was tuned for £2; set it to your asset's own figure.
Ledger
The 50 most recent calls. The source links open Elexon's own API for that half-hour, so each outcome can be checked independently.
How it works
- The call. LONG means lean towards exporting more or consuming less: the extra energy is paid the system (imbalance) price. SHORT means the opposite. FLAT means the expected edge is too small to act on.
- The score. Profit per MWh is the system price minus the market index price for LONG, and the reverse for SHORT. The market index price stands in for what the energy was worth in the market.
- The inputs. System prices and net imbalance volumes, market index prices, demand and wind forecasts and outturns, and system margin forecasts. All come from Elexon's open Insights API, and only values already published at lock time are used.
- The model. Gradient-boosted regression trees that predict the spread between the system price and the market index price. It is small enough to download and run yourself: model file.
How to check it
- Calls are not rewritten. Each ledger row carries a hash of its own content and of the previous row's hash. Note today's latest hash, come back later and run the check above: if any earlier call had been changed or removed, the chain would no longer reach your hash.
- Calls come from the published model. Each row stores the exact inputs used. The check above re-runs the public model on them and compares the result.
- Outcomes are Elexon's. Each row links to the Elexon API responses for its half-hour.
- The backtest is reproducible. The code downloads the public history, selects settings on data before the test window, and refits month by month. Every backtest call is in the CSV.
Limits you should know
- Most of the edge comes from a well-known effect: the system tends to stay long or short for a few half-hours. The simple rule on the chart captures that on its own. The model's contribution is the gap between the two lines.
- The market index price is a reference, not a price you are guaranteed to trade at. Your own contracts decide what a MWh of flex is really worth.
- Results are per 1 MWh and ignore your asset's limits, such as state of charge, ramp rates and notice periods. Many assets acting on the same signal would also move the system price.
- The "locked at" time is recorded by this service. The hash chain proves the ledger was not changed after someone noted a hash; it cannot prove a time on its own.
- Elexon revises system prices in later settlement runs. Calls are scored once, on the first published price.
- This is decision support for operating physical assets. It is not investment advice.